I was a proud
witness and participant in the historic election victory that has now ushered
the All Peoples Congress (APC) Presidential candidate, Gen (Rtd) Muhammadu
Buhari to power on 28 March, 2015, after a very close battle.
The important
thing in this victory is that it is a victory, first, to Nigerians, who wanted,
went for and got the CHANGE they wanted,
the election result being a manifestation of the people’s resolve to confront
corruption, exploitation and bad governance, and secondly for Democracy, because
it is about Nigerians being assured that in their democracy, their votes count unlike
before (people used to say, why the heck am I voting anyway, the politicians
will always rig and my vote doesn't mean a damn thing) and that power lay in
their hands; the hands of the people.
If the
president, or any governor or other public office holders do not do as we want
in the next four years, and make life better for us, they will meet us at the
Polling Unit and we know we now have the vote/power to get rid of them. This is
what I am most happy about. Nigerians, from the grassroots to the top have been
empowered; their voice and power are being heard and taken into account. Political leaders should do more. Public
servants and political office holders serve us; we don't serve them.
Politicians must not mess with the people anymore. Politicians must not take
the people for granted anymore
So coming
down to the next set of elections on 11 April 2015, this is the Gubernatorial
(Governorship) and States Houses of Assembly, I make bold to predict a win for
the APC’s incumbent governor seeking re-election in my state of Oyo.
Before the
presidential election, things had looked very dicey and narrow for the
incumbent governor, with the race between mainly himself and the Accord Party
candidate (a former governor of the state), while it was generally agreed that
the candidates of the People’s Democratic Party (a two-term Senator); Labour
(another ex-governor of the state, who actually lost out to the incumbent in
2011) and the rookie candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a young
man whose appearance in the political scene is unexplainable and full of
wagging tongues.
These are the
reasons for my predictions:
1. The bandwagon
effect of the APC/Buhari win in the Presidential, Senatorial and House of
Representatives Elections of 28 March 2015.
2. The Oyo
State voters want their state to be in the mainstream politics, and not to be
in the opposition to the central government, which will now be taken over by
the APC.
3. The APC
won virtually everywhere in the Presidential and National assembly elections
and this will also spur on the people to continue voting them in. Their
candidates are also capitalising on this heavily, but are not complacent
4. The
candidate (incumbent governor) has not performed badly anyway, as there are
visible evidence of his performance all across the state.
5. Several of
the incumbent governor’s competitors (Accord and Labour Parties, especially)
have corruption and mismanagement baggage that won't give them advantage over
him.
6. The incumbent governor has overcome the
crisis within his own party unlike his
competitors, and has patched up quickly
and severally with core members of the party who had initially fallen out with
him.
7. Members of
other parties have started moving to APC as a result of Presidential win by the
party's candidate.
8. The APC
candidate, that is, the incumbent governor, has the support of leaders of
thought and traditional institution as exemplified by Olubadan in Council, the
Alaafin of Oyo, Aseyin of Iseyin and even the Soun of Ogbomoso, as well as
other traditional rulers in the state.
9. APC won
handsomely in Okeogun area of the state, which was hitherto, difficult for the
party to break into. This is a good pointer to the gubernatorial and House of
Assembly wins for their candidates.
10. Already,
there is apathy, despondency and disarray in the camp of other parties, while
the APC has garnered and increased in confidence and goodwill.
This is my
take for a win for the incumbent governor of Oyo State, Senator Isiaka Ajimobi.
I am sure he will break the jinx of that slogan “Ibadan ki sin eniyan
le’meji......". (Ibadan people do not
serve the same leader twice), based on performance, sincerity of purpose,
achievements and focus.
It is a
well-known phenomenon that in Nigeria, governors who secured second terms fall
on their oars, and that is even if they have performed creditably, which is
very rare. Their second terms are even worse. However, he must be kept on his
toes in his second term, as he is wont to be arrogant, selfish at times and
ignores good advice from neutral and well-meaning people and is prone to the
bad habit of enjoying hearing his own voice. He must also find a way that limit
his dependence on the monthly state allocations from the federal government and
conscientiously continue to increase the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of
the state to enable him acquire the funds to further turn the state into a
modern and industrial one.
This Ajimobi
will break that jinx once and for all. It is about time, anyway.
Acknowledgement
I thank my
dear brother, Tunde Ojumu, (ironically, not an Oyo man, but an Osun man) for
his invaluable contribution and very intelligent discourse of this analysis
with me.
Akintokunbo A Adejumo MSc, Dip Mngt, CIHM, MCMI, FITP
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